August 2, 2023: How math could prevent the next pandemic and extreme wave events are increasing. Plus, could humans someday live to 20,000 years old? Read it all below. —Andrea Gawrylewski, Chief Newsletter Editor | | | For centuries, mathematicians have created formulas and models to examine the spread of disease in human populations. Now they are analyzing the COVID pandemic, what happened and what could have gone better. A recent paper by Abba Gumel, a mathematician and mathematical biologist at the University of Maryland, College Park, showed that the number of COVID cases and hospitalizations would have been dramatically reduced if stay-at-home orders had begun a week or two earlier.
Key findings: Gumel's mathematical models show that masks control disease spread, as do vaccines. Separate work has also given insight into how habitat destruction increases the chances of zoonotic diseases spilling over into human populations–a key origin of many viruses that sicken humans.
What the experts say: "We're coming up with this bucket list of things to do to prevent, we hope, the next one but even if we do get hit—and we're going to get hit—to minimize the burden of the next one and to greatly suppress it before it becomes a problem," says Gumel. | | | If we eliminated aging at the cellular level, humans could live for a millennium—and potentially as long as 20,000 years, says João Pedro de Magalhães, a professor of molecular biogerontology at the Institute of Inflammation and Ageing at the University of Birmingham in England. By examining the genomes of many animals, Magalhães concludes that aging is genetically programmed–a "software" not a "hardware" problem.
How it might work: Scientists could hypothetically reprogram our cells by tweaking genes that are central to aging. For example, bowhead whales, elephants, rats and many other animals, all have genes that help elongate life by suppressing cancer, or improving DNA repair; perhaps we could use this knowledge to tweak our own aging coding. This would require technology not currently available.
What the experts say: "
If we could redesign our biology to eliminate cancer and evade the detrimental actions of our genetic software program, the health benefits would be mind-boggling," says Magalhães. | | | • The number of extreme wave events—when crests are taller than 13 feet—has doubled along California coasts due to climate change. | 2 min read | | | A surfer rides a big wave at the Wedge in Newport Beach Thursday, May 18, 2023. The National Weather Service issued a coastal hazard advisory for Orange County beaches through Friday. Breaking waves of 4 to 6 feet with sets of 7 to 8 feet. Credit: Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images | | | • Approximately 30,000 pieces of tracked debris orbit Earth, with 25,000 more satellites likely to be launched by 2031. We need a policy that requires companies to create an end-of-life plan for their orbitals so they can be removed or recycled, writes Moriba Jah, professor of aerospace engineering and engineering mechanics at the University of Texas at Austin. | 6 min read | | | • A riveting podcast about dozens of women who went to a clinic at Yale for fertility treatments. | 5-part series, Serial | | | • Scientists have found molecules with antibiotic properties in Neandertals and Denisovans. | Vox | | | • A sophomore at Stanford did the investigative reporting that led to the resignation of the university's president. | The New York Times | | | For a good primer on the science of anti-aging, check out this feature story, which partially chronicles the discovery of rapamycin, a compound found in soil bacteria that has shown strong anti-aging effects (though not without side effects). | If you have any feedback, suggestions, or spot any errors while reading these newsletters, please email me: newsletters@sciam.com. See you tomorrow! | —Andrea Gawrylewski, Chief Newsletter Editor | | Subscribe to this and all of our newsletters . | | | | Scientific American
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